Life is an ultramarathon

I think it's now time to decide what will be the main sporting events of my year 2008. I've got some fairly well defined plans but I also feel undecisive about others. I'll give a confidence index to all these ideas, and we'll see by the end of 2008 whether I was correct or not...

As previously argued I won't run the UTMB again in 2008 - confidence: 99%.

The main ideas so far are the following:

• the CCC (100km in 2008?) or the potentially new race starting from Champex - confidence: 5%.
• a marathon on 1^st January, starting at midnight. How cool would that be to start the year by a night marathon ? I see it quite friendly and not too fast. This idea has already been implemented, for example by the Neujahrmarathon. Champagne available at aid stations :) - confidence: 10%.
• a long ultra in Spring:
  • the Grand Union Canal Race - 233km from Birmingham to London - confidence: 10%.
  • OR the Pennine 100 miles, a trail involving night navigation - confidence: 20%.
  • OR the full Thames Path OFF (most likely solo and without assistance) - 295km from Sea to Source - confidence: 30%.
• the Dublin Marathon in October to close the season (I could nearly do it this Automn actually ...) - confidence: 40%.
• the Nice Ironman (June) OR the UK Ironman (August) - 3.8km swim, 180km bike, 42.195km run - confidence: 70%.
• I'm registered for Tough Guy (c) at the end of January (if they eventually send me my "passport" back) - confidence: 99%.

The long ultra and the Ironman being obviously the most important, I may decide not to do both. In this case I'd replace the unselected event by a (relatively short) 50 to 100km trail.

More generally, I'd like to enter more (small) races for the fun.

Ultra plans.